Tuesday’s Recap

No games yesterday, so we go straight into it.

Six games on the board today and it’s the last slate before the All-Star break.

We’re in on four.

PHOENIX MERCURY at LOS ANGELES SPARKS - 3:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA - TV: League Pass, Local

Both teams close out the pre-break slate looking to build momentum. Phoenix snapped a five-game skid Sunday with a 72-63 defensive effort over Connecticut, getting 21 points from DeWanna Bonner - who also passed Brittney Griner, ironically on the floor as a member of the Sun that night, to become the franchise’s all-time leading rebounder. Kahleah Copper added 18 and Alyssa Thomas ran the offense with 11 assists.

Los Angeles enters on a four-game losing streak of its own, most recently a 90-82 defeat at Dallas. Kelsey Plum remains out with that lower leg injury that’s sidelined her for a month now, and the numbers show it - LA was averaging nearly 24 points and 6.4 assists a game from her before the injury. Nneka Ogwumike, Rae Burrell and Dearica Hamby have carried the load since, and the Sparks have still managed to go 5-1 against the spread over their last six games despite winning just once outright in that stretch.

These two have already met twice this season, both wins for LA. Phoenix gets a crack at revenge in the finale before the break.

Model: LA Sparks -2.5, Total 174.9

MINNESOTA LYNX at SEATTLE STORM - 3:00 PM ET
Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA - TV: League Pass, Local

These two just played Monday, and it took everything Minnesota had. Olivia Miles put up 32 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in a 105-102 win, becoming just the fifth player in league history to post that exact stat line and only the second rookie ever to do it, joining Candace Parker. Miles is averaging 19.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists on the year and now sits eighth in the league in scoring. Kayla McBride was just named Western Conference Player of the Week after averaging 27 a game over her last three.

The bigger story tonight might be who else takes the floor. Napheesa Collier - the two-time MVP runner-up who had offseason surgery on both ankles - is probable to make her season debut. Minnesota has gone 21-6 without her, but her potential return changes the calculus of this Lynx team heading into the break.

Seattle stayed within three points of Minnesota on Monday despite the final result, its closest game against the Lynx all season. Flau’jae Johnson dropped 26 in that one, and Dominique Malonga continues to be a legitimate problem in the paint, sitting at 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds a night. Ezi Magbegor remains out with a facial fracture, thinning an already undermanned frontcourt further.

Minnesota has won this season series comfortably, including an 88-68 result back in June. Whether Collier’s potential debut adds an extra layer or Seattle’s young core keeps this one interesting again is the story to watch.

Model: Minnesota -3.7, Total 170.3

CHICAGO SKY at NEW YORK LIBERTY - 7:00 PM ET
Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY - TV: League Pass, Local

New York enters off a dramatic 99-98 overtime win at Dallas Monday, with Breanna Stewart going for 33. But the Liberty have been genuinely struggling against the number lately, having failed to cover in five straight games and seven of their last nine. The defense is the issue - New York has allowed nearly 95 points a game to opponents shooting 48 percent from the floor during that stretch.

Chicago is 9-17 and limping in with DiJonai Carrington and Skylar Diggins both out, but the Sky have quietly been the more reliable side against the spread all season, sitting at 14-12 ATS compared to New York’s 11-16. The two teams met once already this year, a 96-95 New York win that was closer than the final records would suggest.

New York’s talent gap is real. Its recent form against the number is not.

Model: NY Liberty -5.3, Total 173.8

LAS VEGAS ACES at WASHINGTON MYSTICS - 7:30 PM ET
CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC - TV: League Pass, Local

Las Vegas comes in off a dominant 109-83 win at Toronto, where A’ja Wilson went for 26 on 11-for-14 shooting and Jackie Young added 24 while running the show. The Aces have won 14 of their last 19 and enter as one of the league’s most complete teams heading into the break. Wilson leads the entire WNBA in scoring at 25.6 a night and also tops the league in blocks.

Washington is coming off its own signature win - a 90-82 road victory at Golden State that snapped a two-game skid. The Mystics have two All-Stars in this game, Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron, both representing the league’s youngest roster on Saturday. Citron leads the team at 17 points a night, and the development story in DC has genuinely been one of the better ones in the league this season.

Las Vegas has won 10 of 12 games this year when favored by this margin or more. Washington has been live in a lot of these matchups as a live dog. The two forces collide in the last game before the break for both sides.

Model: Las Vegas -0.5, Total 166.0

CONNECTICUT SUN at INDIANA FEVER - 8:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN - TV: USA Network, Local

Indiana enters riding real momentum, having just knocked off New York 108-88 behind Kelsey Mitchell’s 33 points. The Fever have won four of their last five and now get a Connecticut team they’ve already beaten four straight times, including an 85-75 decision back in June that the Sun kept respectable.

Connecticut is 7-19 but has actually gone 5-5 over its last 10 games, more competitive than the record at the bottom of the standings suggests. Brittney Griner leads them at 14.1 points a night, and Leila Lacan has been productive running the perimeter. Saniya Rivers carries a questionable tag with an ankle issue that thins an already short backcourt further.

Indiana’s offense ranks near the top of the league. Its defense does not. That combination has made Fever games some of the more unpredictable numbers on the board all season, and tonight is the last chance to find value before the break resets everything.

Model: Indiana -8.4, Total 173.4

DALLAS WINGS at PORTLAND FIRE - 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center, Portland, OR - TV: USA Network, CNBC, Local

The Bueckers watch is on again. Dallas star Paige Bueckers hit her head hard on the floor in Sunday’s win over the Sparks after an inadvertent collision, and while she avoided concussion protocol, she’s questionable tonight and was already held out of Monday’s overtime loss to New York. Arike Ogunbowale stepped up with 29 in that one, and Jessica Shepard has quietly been putting together one of the best rebounding seasons in the league - her 16 boards Monday marked the fifth time this year she’s cleared that number, and her double-double total is tied for the league lead.

Portland already beat Dallas once this season, an 84-83 nail-biter back in June where Bridget Carleton dropped 20 and Emily Engstler hit the go-ahead free throw with 1.7 seconds left. The Fire are 11-15 and have alternated wins and losses lately, most recently falling 101-93 at Minnesota after a productive road trip that included a win over Atlanta. Carla Leite leads Portland at 15.5 points and 5.8 assists a night.

If Bueckers sits again, this Dallas offense looks a lot different than the one that won six straight before this stretch. Worth checking that injury report right up until tip.

Model: Dallas -1.7, Total 172.8

G3 Projections WNBA Picks

  • Minnesota at Seattle: [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]

  • Chicago at New York Liberty : [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]

  • Las Vegas at Washington : [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]

  • Portland at Dallas: [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]