The day started out nicely enough as Connecticut covered our -1.5 in a genuine battle, holding off Portland 90-87. Aaliyah Edwards came off the bench for 21 points and eight rebounds and Brittney Griner added 20 with six assists, and the Sun needed every bit of it as Portland cut a 13-point deficit down to three in the final minute before Connecticut closed it out.

But then the evening game hit and our Toronto picks were a different story. The Tempo were missing Brittney Sykes, Kiki Rice and Temi Fagbenle heading in, but were playing well enough to be leading by six points at the half. Then Washington took control after halftime and blew the doors off, starting with an 11-3 run and outscoring Toronto 53-30 in the second half to win 79-62. Kiki Iriafen had a monster night with 25 points and 14 rebounds, Shakira Austin added 17 and 10, and Toronto’s Marina Mabrey - who had back-to-back 30-point games over the weekend - managed just eight points in the Tempo’s lowest-scoring output of the season. Both our Toronto plays fell short.

We ended 1-2 for -1.11u on the day and that’s our first straight up “L” in the last 7 days in the W.

We shrug it off and move to Wednesday.

Three games today, two of them starting before lunch.

All three matter to us.

SEATTLE STORM at CHICAGO SKY - 12:00 PM ET
Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL - TV: League Pass, Local

An early tip and a genuinely messy matchup on paper. Chicago is 7-16 but favored at home, and that tells you something about how far Seattle has fallen - the Storm are 6-19 and one of the worst road teams in the league. But there’s a wrinkle. Seattle has won four straight in this series, including a win at Wintrust last August, and Natisha Hiedeman just dropped 31 points in an 84-79 loss to Washington. Dominique Malonga has emerged as a real problem in the paint for Seattle, averaging north of 16 a night. Ezi Magbegor remains out with a facial injury.

Chicago’s own injury report is a mess. DiJonai Carrington and Skylar Diggins are both out, and Kamilla Cardoso - their leading scorer and rebounder - is questionable with a knee issue. If Cardoso can’t go, the Sky’s interior presence collapses. Chicago has also blown fourth-quarter leads in each of its last two games, a pattern that should concern anyone backing them to close this one out.

Seattle catching points against a shorthanded Chicago team that can’t finish games. That’s the storyline heading into a noon tip.

LOS ANGELES SPARKS at MINNESOTA LYNX - 1:00 PM ET
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN - TV: League Pass, Local

Minnesota is the best team in basketball right now and it isn’t particularly close. The Lynx are 18-6, winners of three straight, and just needed 37 points from Kayla McBride and 33 from Olivia Miles to hold off Phoenix on Monday. Miles has been nothing short of sensational since returning from her calf injury - the Rookie of the Year race may already be over. Napheesa Collier remains out but this team hasn’t needed her.

Los Angeles is 10-12 and dealing with real absences of their own. Kelsey Plum remains out with a lower leg injury and Cameron Brink is day-to-day with an ankle issue. Erica Wheeler and Nneka Ogwumike combined for 39 points in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta and this Sparks roster has shown it can still put points on the board even shorthanded.

The number here is enormous. Minnesota has won five straight in this series and nine of the last ten meetings between these two teams. The question isn’t whether Minnesota wins - it’s whether the Sparks can keep it close.

GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES at INDIANA FEVER - 8:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN - TV: USA Network, Local

The best game of the day, full stop.

Golden State is riding a franchise-record seven-game winning streak and has quietly built the best defense in basketball - a 100.4 defensive rating that’s allowing a league-low 76.2 points per game. Janelle Salaun just dropped a career-high 26 points in the win over Connecticut on Friday. Gabby Williams, their leading scorer, is questionable tonight with a back injury after missing her first game of the season.

Indiana is 14-9 and coming off a statement win - a 109-75 blowout of Las Vegas on Sunday. Caitlin Clark remains probable with a back issue and has been playing on a minutes restriction, but she’s still the only player in WNBA history averaging 20 points and 7 assists in a season. Kelsey Mitchell has taken over as Indiana’s primary scorer, leading the team in points in six straight games and sitting third in the league in scoring.

These two have split their season series so far, with the home team winning both meetings. Golden State’s defense against Indiana’s offense is as good a matchup as this league has to offer right now.

Whether Williams plays could change the calculus considerably. Worth checking before tip.