Monday went exactly as expected - our model passed on Atlanta, who went on to win 101-92 at home against the LA Sparks. Returning from her Saturday absence against Portland, Angel Reese was money again for the Dream, putting up 23 points and 13 rebounds for her 16th double-double of the season. Allisha Gray added 20 points, two assists, and two steals to help seal the deal. For the Sparks, Erica Wheeler led the way with 20 points, four rebounds, and three assists, while Nneka Ogwumike added 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists in the loss.

The model also correctly called our Phoenix +13.0 pick, with the Minnesota Lynx narrowly escaping the Mercury 104-100 despite a remarkably sluggish collective effort. Minnesota seemed content to coast and lean entirely on individual heroics - they desperately needed a season-high 37 points (and six 3-pointers) from Kayla McBride and a career-high 33 points from Olivia Miles just to survive. Aside from Natasha Howard’s 13 points, the rest of the Lynx roster was virtually non-existent, with a bench that logged 34 combined minutes but managed a meager eight points.

On the other side, Phoenix was scrappy and relentless, forcing 23 lead changes behind Kahleah Copper’s 26 points and Alyssa Thomas’s 19 points, eight rebounds, and 12 assists. However, the Mercury ultimately let a highly winnable game slip through their own fingers, squandering their hard-fought opportunities and unravelling on their own terms down the stretch.

We have two games on the slate for today - and yes, one of those games starts at 11:00 AM ET so get your coffee ready.

PORTLAND FIRE at CONNECTICUT SUN - 11:00 AM ET
Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT - TV: League Pass, Local

An unusual morning tip but the matchup is real.

Portland comes in hot off one of their best performances of the season - a 102-92 road win over Atlanta on Saturday where the Fire shot 60 percent from the field, drained 14 of 29 threes and put seven players in double figures. Carla Leite has been their offensive engine all season and Bridget Carleton continues to be a reliable perimeter weapon. Portland is 10-13 but has won three of their last four and is playing with genuine confidence right now.

Connecticut is 5-18 and has lost three straight at home. The Sun dropped 79-64 to Golden State on Friday and have failed to score more than 81 points in three consecutive games. Brittney Griner is listed as probable with a quad strain. Aneesah Morrow remains out in reconditioning. Saniya Rivers is out with an ankle sprain. The Sun are doing this with a skeleton crew and it’s showing.

Portland has already beaten Connecticut twice this season. Connecticut has won just three of 13 home games.

This one tips at 11:00 AM. Early start, real game.

WASHINGTON MYSTICS at TORONTO TEMPO - 7:00 PM ET
Coca-Cola Coliseum, Toronto, ON - TV: NBA TV, TSN, Local

Washington comes into Toronto having already beaten the Tempo twice this season and quietly sitting at 11-10 - right on the playoff bubble. But the record hides some cracks. The Mystics have actually lost 4 of their last 5 against the spread, even while their defense has tightened considerably over the past 10 games, allowing 81.5 points per game in that stretch. Sonia Citron has been a consistent contributor, but this is a team that’s been winning games straight up without covering the number.

Toronto is 10-13 and limping. Brittney Sykes remains out with a foot injury. Kiki Rice is out with the ankle sprain that’s kept her sidelined since early June. Temi Fagbenle is questionable in concussion protocol. That’s three rotation players unavailable or uncertain for a team that was already thin.

Marina Mabrey has been carrying this offense almost entirely on her own. Back-to-back 30-point games Sunday against New York - five times this season she’s reached that mark. She is the only reason Toronto is still in games right now.

Washington has home-court advantage here in the sense that they’ve already figured this matchup out. Toronto is giving the points.

Whether Mabrey can do it a third straight time is the only real question tonight.