While we didn’t have any official picks Thursday, there were two is one game worth recapping.

Portland delivered a statement win in Washington, throttling the Mystics 75-56. It wasn’t close from the jump - the Fire built a 28-13 lead after the first quarter and pushed it to 43-20 by the midway point of the second, then just sat on it. Washington shot an ice-cold 29 percent from the field for the game. Carla Leite led Portland with 14 points, Serah Williams added 12 on a scorching 83.3 percent shooting, and the Fire’s defense simply suffocated a Mystics team that had won four of five coming in. The model had this one as a pass, and the final margin backed that up - nobody wants to be on either side of a 19-point beatdown they didn’t see coming.

The other half of the slate never happened. New York’s game at Dallas was postponed after the Liberty’s charter flight ran into mechanical issues and left the team stranded on the tarmac for hours. The league pushed the makeup date to Monday, July 20. No harm done on our end - we only posted the model’s output on that one, never a lean, so there’s nothing to account for.

As a side note, I’ll never be able to comprehend how a league worth billions of dollars didn’t have an alternative mode of transportation - then again, maybe you don’t have to look to far to understand.

Four games tonight. Let’s get into it.

ATLANTA DREAM at TORONTO TEMPO - 7:30 PM ET
Coca-Cola Coliseum, Toronto, ON - TV: ION, TSN

Atlanta has won both meetings against Toronto this season, and it hasn’t been particularly close - a 25-point road win in the first matchup, a seven-point win in the second. The Dream are 14-10 and get another crack at a Tempo team that’s cratered defensively, now ranked 13th in the league in defensive rating.

Allisha Gray has been excellent all year, sitting ninth in the league in scoring at 18.8 points a night, and the Dream’s offense ranks sixth overall. The concern here is health - Te-Hina Paopao is questionable with a leg issue and Brionna Jones is questionable with a knee injury, both worth checking closer to tip.

Toronto is 10-14 and has cooled off hard after a fast start, winning just three of their last seven. Marina Mabrey remains the engine of this offense, averaging 21 points a game and sitting third in the league in scoring, but she’s carrying too much of the load with Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice both out. Temi Fagbenle is probable after clearing concussion protocol, which helps, but this roster is stretched thin.

Toronto’s defense has been genuinely bad lately - a 115.6 defensive rating over their last 10 games, second-worst in the league during that stretch.

Atlanta has the pieces to take advantage of that.

Again.

LOS ANGELES SPARKS at CHICAGO SKY - 7:30 PM ET
Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL - TV: ION

These two just played a week ago, and Los Angeles handled it, winning 102-87 on their home floor and Nneka Ogwumike has been on an absolute run since - double figures in nine straight games, 20-plus points five times in that stretch, and she tied the Sparks franchise scoring record in the process. LA is 10-13 and still without Kelsey Plum, but Cameron Brink’s return has given this frontcourt some life back.

Chicago is 8-16 but is coming off consecutive wins for the first time in a while, most recently a 95-90 win over Seattle where undrafted rookie Sydney Taylor dropped 17. The bigger story is health. Kamilla Cardoso hasn’t played since July 12 with a knee issue and remains questionable tonight, and Skylar Diggins is out indefinitely with a knee injury of her own. If Cardoso can’t go, Chicago’s interior presence takes a real hit against an LA team that just hung 102 on them a week ago.

Both offenses lean toward pace and points. The first meeting between these two produced 189 combined points, and neither defense has shown much reason to expect a different outcome tonight.

SEATTLE STORM at INDIANA FEVER - 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN - TV: ION

Indiana has won five straight in this series and already beat Seattle by 11 earlier this season. The Fever are 14-10 and coming off a tough 88-75 loss to Golden State’s league-best defense, a game where Caitlin Clark managed just 13 points on an off shooting night. Clark is probable tonight after a minor leg contusion on Wednesday, and Aliyah Boston is questionable with a lower leg issue - both worth monitoring before tip. Kelsey Mitchell has been the steadiest hand for Indiana, sitting at 22.6 points a game and coming off a 20-point game with three threes against the Valkyries.

Seattle is 6-20 and enters on a three-game losing streak, most recently that 95-90 defeat in Chicago. Ezi Magbegor remains away from the team and Taina Mair is out by coach’s decision, leaving this roster even thinner than the record suggests. Dominique Malonga has been a bright spot in the paint, but one player rarely moves the needle against a team playing with this much offensive versatility.

Indiana has controlled this matchup all season. Nothing in the numbers suggests tonight looks any different, though I will note that money seems to be heavy on the Storm getting a consensus +1.5 at many books.

CONNECTICUT SUN at PHOENIX MERCURY - 10:00 PM ET
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ - TV: Local

Connecticut snapped a two-game slide with a gritty 90-87 win over Portland on Tuesday, getting 20 points from Brittney Griner and 16 from Olivia Nelson-Ododa. The Sun are 6-18 and still have the worst record in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve shown some fight lately. Aneesah Morrow is doubtful tonight in a reconditioning process, which limits an already thin frontcourt further.

Phoenix has been in freefall, losing four straight and dropping to 8-17 after a 104-100 defeat at Minnesota where Kahleah Copper poured in 26 and Alyssa Thomas nearly recorded a triple-double with 19 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. That kind of individual production hasn’t been enough to stop the bleeding. Natasha Mack is doubtful with a foot injury and Sami Whitcomb is questionable with knee injury management, adding more uncertainty to a Mercury team already searching for answers.

Phoenix has won two of the last three meetings in this series, including an 82-66 win at home last season. Whether that trend holds against a Connecticut team playing with some newfound confidence is the question tonight.

LA Sparks at Chicago Sky: [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]

Atlanta at Toronto: [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]