
Wednesday’s Recap
Clean sweep of the board. We went 5-0 for +5.03u on Milwaukee ML, Arizona ML, Los Angeles Dodgers ML, Tampa Bay ML, and Atlanta ML.
NY Mets 3 at Milwaukee 4
Milwaukee needed a rubber match to finish off the Mets, and Joey Ortiz was the one who delivered it, going 3 for 3 and sitting a homer shy of the cycle. His two-run triple in the second came off a ball Brett Baty misjudged at the warning track, he added a ground-rule double in the sixth, and he capped the day with a diving stop at short to end it. Logan Henderson matched a career high with nine strikeouts over five innings for the win, and Christian Yelich drove in two. Marcus Semien and Brett Baty went deep for New York, who got a ninth-inning RBI single from Francisco Alvarez before Trevor Megill closed it out for his 16th save. Final was 4-3.
Athletics 5 at Arizona 15
Arizona put together its best offensive game of the season, a 15-5 rout of the Athletics capped by a seven-run fifth inning. James McCann hit the 100th home run of his career while Ryan Waldschmidt hit the first of his, and Gabriel Moreno’s go-ahead two-run shot got the big inning started. Corbin Carroll and Nolan Arenado had already gone deep in the fourth. Merrill Kelly worked five innings for the win, while Gage Jump was tagged for six runs before he could finish the fifth.
LA Dodgers 9 at Philadelphia 5
Max Muncy continues to torch the Phillies. His go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth was his 229th as a Dodger, passing Dodgers legend Ron Cey for second on the franchise’s all-time list, and Tommy Edman put it away with a bases-clearing triple in the eighth. Dalton Rushing also went deep and added a two-run double, and Eric Lauer improved to 8-0 in his appearances with the Dodgers this year. Alec Bohm and Bryan De La Cruz, recalled from Triple-A for his first game of the season, homered for Philadelphia in the 9-5 loss.
Tampa Bay 4 at Toronto 2
Griffin Jax was outstanding for Tampa Bay, six innings of one-run ball on three hits and a walk with five strikeouts, his second quality start of the year. George Springer had given Toronto an early lead with an RBI groundout in the first, but Victor Mesa Jr. tied it back up in the second with an RBI single. The Rays broke it open in the sixth on a rally that started with a fielding error, when Daulton Varsho lost a Yandy Diaz fly ball at the wall in right-center. Chandler Simpson's sacrifice fly gave Tampa Bay the lead, Mesa added his second RBI single of the day, and pinch-hitter Ben Williamson drew a bases-loaded walk to make it 4-1, with Jeff Hoffman charged for all three runs, unearned, in just two-thirds of an inning. Braydon Fisher had opened the game for Toronto and worked a scoreless inning and a third before Hoffman's meltdown. Alejandro Kirk's homer in the seventh was the only answer Toronto had, and the Blue Jays have now lost four straight and scored just six runs in their last five games, tied for the fewest in baseball this season. Bryan Baker closed it out for his 26th save in a 4-2 final that pushed the Rays to a third straight win, clinching this four-game series.
San Diego 6 at Atlanta 7
Atlanta needed a six-run eighth to survive San Diego, and it still came down to the ninth. Martin Perez, back from the injured list for the first time since being hit by a Juan Soto liner on July 5, threw four scoreless innings to start it, and Michael King matched him for San Diego before Jackson Merrill’s homer tied it in the seventh. The Braves broke through late on a string of doubles and singles from Jim Jarvis, Brewer Hicklen, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Dominic Smith to take a 7-1 lead, and they needed every bit of it after Luis Rengifo’s two-run homer off Raisel Iglesias in the ninth. Iglesias got the final two outs anyway for his 20th save in a 7-6 final.
Five for five, and we’ll take it into tonight’s card.
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves - 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park, Atlanta, GA - TV: SDPA, BravesVision
This is the finale of a four-game set that Atlanta leads 2-1 after Wednesday’s win. Chris Sale takes the ball for the Braves in a big spot, sitting at 10-6 with a 2.06 ERA, one of the better lines in the league this year. Griffin Canning goes for San Diego at 1-8 with a 6.67 ERA. Atlanta is 59-42 and first in the NL East, while San Diego sits at 50-52, third in the NL West.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians - 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH - TV: MNMT, CLEG
Cleveland has controlled this series, taking the first two games 13-4 and 5-2 before Minnesota salvaged Wednesday’s matchup behind Brooks Lee’s three-run homer and Trevor Larnach’s leadoff shot in a 10-6 win that snapped the Twins’ four-game skid. Jose Ramirez made his season debut back from a broken left hamate bone in that game, going 2 for 5 with an RBI in his return.
Taj Bradley takes the ball for Minnesota this afternoon at 9-4 with a 3.85 ERA, and he’s had real success against this Cleveland lineup in the past, a 1.54 ERA across four career starts against the Guardians. Gavin Williams counters for Cleveland at 10-5 with a 4.00 ERA and has been even better in this particular matchup, 2-0 with a sub-1.40 ERA against Minnesota this year, including a near-complete-game effort against them on July 9. Minnesota sits at 50-53, Cleveland at 54-49.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays - 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON - TV: Sportsnet, RAYS
Tampa Bay has taken three straight from Toronto and eight of nine meetings this season, and the Rays go for the sweep tonight in the finale of this four-game set. Ian Seymour was scratched from his scheduled start so Tampa Bay is turning to Casey Legumina instead, working him as an opener the way they have at other points this year; he's at 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA, 28 strikeouts and 11 walks on the season. Shane Bieber goes for Toronto at 1-1 with a 5.70 ERA in his return from injury. Toronto has dropped four straight and sits at 46-56, last in the AL East, while the Rays are 59-42 and first in the division.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals - 5:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO - TV: CARD, ARID
This one’s a makeup game from a June 25 rainout, squeezed into an off day for both clubs. St. Louis beat the Angels 1-0 on Wednesday behind six innings from Hunter Dobbins and a JJ Wetherholt homer, while Arizona was busy blowing out Oakland. Brandon Pfaadt takes the ball for the Diamondbacks at 4-1 with a 4.58 ERA, opposite Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals at 4-7 with a 2.92 ERA. Arizona is 53-49, second in the NL West, while St. Louis sits at 52-49.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers - 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park, Detroit, MI - TV: MLB Network, DSN, ROYL
Kansas City rides a three-game winning streak into this series opener, capped by Wednesday’s 5-4 win over San Francisco in which Salvador Perez tied George Brett’s franchise home run record and Lane Thomas delivered the go-ahead two-run single in the seventh. Detroit enters off its own win, a 5-1 decision over the Cubs behind Keider Montero and four relievers combining on a four-hitter, with Hao-Yu Lee providing a three-run homer.
Randy Dobnak starts for Kansas City tonight at 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA in a limited sample, opposite Troy Melton for Detroit, who’s been outstanding at 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and has allowed just one earned run across his last three starts. Kansas City is 43-60, last in the AL Central, while Detroit sits at 48-54, fourth in the division.
G3 Projections MLB Picks
At this point the model is not giving us any clear direction - we do have a lean on Tampa Bay -115 or better against Toronto and the model loves Atlanta today vs San Diego, but at that juice, I’m laying off.
It's hard not to take a pick the day immediately after going 5-0. That's exactly the kind of moment discipline gets tested. But forcing a play at a bad number is how you give back what you just built, not how you protect it. We stay patient, we save our bones, and we come back tomorrow with a full slate to work with.

