Everybody else in baseball is still on the couch tonight getting an extra day of rest after the break while the New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.
NEW YORK METS at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - 7:10 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia - TV: ESPN
The Mets limped into the break about as badly as a $300 million payroll can limp. They dropped their finale 3-2 to Boston on July 12, eeking out 2 hits through eight innings before the Red Sox scratched out a ninth-inning rally off Devin Williams. That loss put New York at 40-57 - 17 games under .500 at the break, their worst mark at this point in a season since 1995. They’ve lost 16 of their last 22 and are last place in the NL East.
This isn’t a debate at this point, it’s a fact of life.
Philadelphia closed out the first half the way you’d want to. Zack Wheeler carved up Detroit for six scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts on July 12, Realmuto blew it open with a three-run double, and the Phillies rolled 5-0 to finish the Tigers series and head into the break at 54-43, sitting second in the NL East.
On the mound, Christian Scott gets the ball for New York. He’s been quietly solid - 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 65 strikeouts - but he still hasn’t finished six innings in a single start all year, and he’s fresh off a stint on the IL for a hip issue. Aaron Nola takes the bump for Philly and it has not been his year. He’s sitting at 5.75 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through his last outing, a rough follow-up to a $172 million extension that was supposed to anchor this rotation.
Justin Crawford (knee) got extra days off over the break and should be back in Philly’s lineup. New York is still without Mark Vientos, Clay Holmes and Luis Robert, so the lineup card writes itself by default more than by choice.
It’s going to be hot at Citizens Bank Park tonight, mid-90s at first pitch, which tends to help the ball carry a little more than usual - worth keeping in mind with two shaky-ish starters on the mound.
Image Courtesy of GameDayMath
A last place team with nothing to play for except pride against a division contender getting reacquainted with a pitcher who hasn’t looked like himself in months. Plenty here to chew on before the number even comes out.
I have no official pick today.
MODEL LEAN: Philadelphia 4.77 to 4.07 | Total: 8.84
No pick tonight, just the breakdown - some days the number’s there, some days it isn’t, and today was a good reminder why that discipline matters.
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