G3 Projections MLB Preview & Picks for Friday 7/17

No official pick last night, just a model lean on the Phillies against the Mets which didn’t come home. New York took the opener 4-1 at Citizens Bank Park, and the Mets did it against a Philadelphia team that came in 54-43, fourteen games clear of a Mets club sitting at 40-57. On paper this was exactly the kind of spot Philly should have controlled. It didn’t play that way.

Francisco Alvarez was the story. He went deep twice, and between the two swings the Mets had all the offense they’d end up needing. Brett Baty chipped in a homer of his own, and an early Ewing double drove home a run to get New York on the board first. On the other side, Trea Turner’s solo shot late was the only real answer Philadelphia’s lineup had all night, and it ended up being the Phillies’ lone run in the loss. Their bats simply never got untracked against a Mets pitching staff that did just enough once that cushion was in place.

It’s one game, first one back from the break, and both of these clubs have a lot of season left. But a lean is a lean, and this one didn’t cash. On to tonight, where we’ve got five games worth talking through and one live number on the board.

Fenway Park, Boston, MA — TV: NESN, RAYS

This is the front end of a day-night doubleheader between two AL East clubs trending in very different directions on paper, even if the standings still favor Tampa. The Rays come in at 56-38, three games clear of the Yankees atop the division. Boston sits at 46-48, but this is not the team that stumbled out of the gate. The Red Sox have won nine straight and gone 14-2 over their last sixteen, a real second-half heater.

Griffin Jax gets the ball for Tampa, 5-6 with a 3.47 ERA and a strikeout an inning this year, 71 in 70 frames. Jake Bennett goes for Boston, and the rookie left-hander has been excellent in his own right at 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA, having allowed just three home runs across 47.2 innings. Willson Contreras is back in Boston’s lineup for this one too, closing out the final game of a five-game suspension.

Tampa’s game all year has been balance over star power. They lead the AL in team batting average at .259, with Yandy Diaz pacing the whole league at .322. Nick Martinez has anchored the rotation at 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA, and the staff overall ranks sixth in the AL at 3.80. Meanwhile, Boston’s rotation is running on fumes. Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck are all out, and Connelly Early joined that group with elbow inflammation just last week. That the Sox have won nine straight anyway, with essentially a patchwork staff, says plenty about how well this offense is clicking right now.

American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI — TV: Brewers TV, Marlins.TV

Sandy Alcantara draws the start for Miami at 10-5 with a 3.99 ERA, going up against a Milwaukee club that’s found a real gem in 24-year-old Logan Henderson. Henderson is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA this year and 6-1 with a 2.52 ERA for his career, and he’s won each of his last three outings, including a return-from-injury start against the Cardinals on July 9 where he battled through five and a third with three runs allowed.

This one has more juice than a typical midweek Central-East interleague matchup. Milwaukee took a five-game cushion in the NL Central into the break but stumbled a bit right before it, and they’ll want to reassert themselves at home. Miami is four games back in the Wild Card race and playing with real urgency of its own, a win over one of the better clubs in the league would go a long way toward proving their second-half surge is for real.

Miami’s lineup has been carried by a pair of contact bats. Otto Lopez is hitting .334 with 127 hits and 61 runs scored, right up there with the best pure hitters in the National League, and Xavier Edwards is right behind him at .303 with 107 hits and 13 stolen bases. Both clubs can beat you with the bat, which makes this one worth more than a passing glance even without a marquee name on the mound.

Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON — TV: Apple TV+

White Sox are the surprise of the league coming in at 50-45 and tied for first in the AL Central while the Blue Jays sit 45-51 and are dead-last in the AL East, yet Toronto is favored tonight.

Anthony Kay takes the ball for the Sox at 6-4 with a 4.33 ERA, and he was sharp enough in his last outing against Boston on July 9 going five and a third innings with two earned runs allowed. Spencer Miles goes for the Jays at 4-1 with a sparkling 2.85 ERA, and he’s actually been working out of the bullpen recently too, having thrown two scoreless innings of relief against San Diego his last time out before this spot start.

The name worth knowing here is Tristan Peters. He’s been scorching for the White Sox, slashing .414/.433/.793 over his last ten games, and that kind of bat matters in a game where Chicago’s getting plus money on the road.

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY — TV: MLB Network, YES, SportsNet LA

The marquee matchup of the night. Dodgers roll in at 61-36 and lead a weak NL West by a comfortable margin while the Yankees sit at 54-42 and are trying to keep pace with the Rays in the AL East. This is the first meeting of the year between these two clubs and the consensus line has Los Angeles favored -108 and New York -103, with the total sitting at 9.

The Dodgers Roki Sasaki has been rough since a shutout outing on June 5. Over his last five starts he’s allowed 22 earned runs across just 23 innings, and his ERA has climbed all the way to 5.33 while the Yankees Gerrit Cole is trending the opposite way. His overall season ERA sits at 4.04, but he’s been sharper across his last two outings, striking out 13 against just one walk over 11.1 innings.

New York is still without Aaron Judge, who’s been out since early June with a stress fracture in his right rib and was re-evaluated over the All-Star break. Ben Rice has more than picked up the slack in his absence, hitting .279 with 29 home runs and a .971 OPS on the year, and he’s riding a four-game streak of clearing 1.5 total bases.

Sutter Health Park, West Sacramento, CA — TV: NBC Sports California, MASN

While not a marque game, the model wants what the model wants and that gets us to the 4th place Nationals, who sit at 48-49 in the AL East, going out west to take on the A’s who are also sitting in 4th place in the AL West at 41-55. Both teams are eight games back in their respective divisions.

Washington actually carries a strong 28-18 road record into this one as Cade Cavalli gets the ball for Washington. He’s quietly put together a strong first half, sitting at a 3.83 ERA with a 110:32 strikeout to walk ratio over nearly 99 innings. His last time out against the Yankees he went six innings, allowing just two runs on four hits with five strikeouts in a no-decision, his third quality start in his last four turns.

Gage Jump goes for the Athletics, a 23-year-old rookie lefty who debuted in late May and has settled in at 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA since taking a rotation spot. The bigger story here is the state of this Athletics club. They dropped nine straight heading into the break and are 1-9 over their last ten games, a slide that already cost pitching coach Scott Emerson his job.

Shea Langeliers remains a real threat in that lineup with 21 home runs on the year, but Zack Gelof, one of their steadier bats, is still on the 10-day with a knee injury.

On the Washington side, the bullpen took a hit recently with Brad Lord landing on the 15-day injured list with left side tightness. The Nat’s bullpen is currently ranked 29th out of 30 teams in the MLB.

Washington at Athletics: [🔒 Subscriber Only Pick]